🔗 Share this article

Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It frequently acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or merely the biggest shock.

But the latest race is fundamentally unique. The group of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions fading and longtime strugglers rising in unison. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with five other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still