Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
